DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CSKA ESPORTSwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 9 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 9 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 7 games
Underlord
мистер мораль · 7 games
CSKA ESPORTS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
389 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
375 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 551 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 383 bans
Beastmaster
318 picks · 722 bans
Lion
312 picks · 151 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 265 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% CSKA ESPORTS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% CSKA ESPORTS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:32
4Pirates 48%CSKA ESPORTS 52%
The model gave 52% on CSKA ESPORTS — the game was taken by CSKA ESPORTS in 32:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteCSKA ESPORTS · 52%
Series resultCSKA ESPORTS 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1