CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
eSpoiledloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 31 game
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 31 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 17 games
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
eSpoiled
Marcioften banned
Wein · 15 games
Bane
asdekor_r · 11 games
Batridersignature
Wein · 10 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
Wein · 10 games
Svenoften banned
ssnovv1 · 10 games
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
ssnovv1 · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
Wein · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 588 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
377 picks · 404 bans
Dark Willow
347 picks · 208 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 504 bans
Terrorblade
328 picks · 708 bans
Nature's Prophet
319 picks · 616 bans
Puck
318 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:17
4Pirates 68%eSpoiled 32%
The model gave 68% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 42:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaOtaker
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
LeshracNattyNarwhal
Warlockasdekor_r
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
Shadow ShamanWein
Axeмистер мораль
Dark Willowariel
Game 2prediction correct19:9
4Pirates 65%eSpoiled 35%
The model gave 65% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 26:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterOtaker
Abaddonssnovv1
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Chenasdekor_r
Axeмистер мораль
BaneWein
Dark Willowariel
SilencerPERDAN4IK
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 79%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2