FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
GBGolden Barysloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 33 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 30 games
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
Disruptor
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Marcioften banned
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
Golden Barys
Lion
ArrOw · 4 games
Skywrath Mage
ArrOw · 2 games
Tusk
ArrOw · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
540 picks · 801 bans
Tusk
502 picks · 359 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 641 bans
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 566 bans
Shadow Demon
380 picks · 720 bans
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 569 bans
Mars
343 picks · 469 bans
Slardar
325 picks · 915 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 55%
Hero pool strength57% Golden Barys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:25
4Pirates 53%Golden Barys 47%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerbashka
TinyArrOw
Ember Spiritcoldofff
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
Windrangerariel
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 59%
Series result4Pirates 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1