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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 5 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 4 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 4 games
75%
Lion
Lion
ariel · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Otaker · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
мистер мораль · 3 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 3 games
67%

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 9 games
33%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 7 games
43%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
ififall · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 670 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 471 bans
53%
Luna
Luna
359 picks · 457 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 538 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
334 picks · 176 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
325 picks · 417 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
323 picks · 654 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
306 picks · 316 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 37%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:9
4Pirates 43%Level UP 57%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 24:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
55% · 194 games52% · 168 games
Shadow FiendLowskill
Shadow Fiend
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
55% · 193 games49% · 444 games
PangolierMaTson
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOtaker
49% · 253 games49% · 371 game
HoodwinkDelight
Hoodwink
Lion
Lionariel
51% · 228 games
Pugna
PugnaPERDAN4IK
40% · 115 games
Game 2prediction correct38:41
4Pirates 39%Level UP 61%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 56:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOtaker
46% · 83 games51% · 339 games
Dragon KnightLowskill
Dragon Knight
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
55% · 115 games48% · 104 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
44% · 142 games61% · 92 games
Nyx AssassinDelight
Nyx Assassin
Muerta
Muertaariel
49% · 69 games
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
39% · 126 games
Game 3prediction correct34:28
4Pirates 40%Level UP 60%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 53:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistOtaker
53% · 132 games55% · 247 games
Dragon KnightLowskill
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
48% · 126 games37% · 66 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Underlord
Underlordмистер мораль
60% · 57 games49% · 178 games
GyrocopterDelight
Gyrocopter
Muerta
Muertaariel
50% · 91 game
Pugna
PugnaPERDAN4IK
51% · 85 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 69%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3