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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 28 games
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
ariel · 20 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
50%

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 8 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 6 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
krol9ash · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
516 picks · 549 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 426 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 378 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
342 picks · 510 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 708 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
311 picks · 559 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
307 picks · 196 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 438 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total75% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:11
4Pirates 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNattyNarwhal
47% · 146 games43% · 188 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracOtaker
51% · 118 games46% · 113 games
Queen of PainMaTson
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
Abaddonмистер мораль
47% · 210 games62% · 131 game
Dark SeerPalantimos
Dark Seer
Rubick
Rubickariel
54% · 189 games46% · 171 game
Shadow ShamanAtoufix
Shadow Shaman
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
57% · 156 games47% · 216 games
Jakirojesv
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct28:39
4Pirates 67%Level UP 33%
The model gave 67% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 46:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOtaker
63% · 214 games44% · 313 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Abaddon
Abaddonмистер мораль
48% · 143 games45% · 255 games
Dragon KnightMaTson
Dragon Knight
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
56% · 216 games42% · 93 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPERDAN4IK
55% · 99 games42% · 136 games
Queen of PainAtoufix
Queen of Pain
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanariel
57% · 237 games47% · 112 games
SilencerPonlo
Silencer
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 75%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2