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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 31 game
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
ariel · 31 game
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 24 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 20 games
55%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 15 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
47%

Level UP

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Mirana
Mirana
Ponlo · 10 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 587 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 393 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
376 picks · 404 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
347 picks · 207 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
329 picks · 707 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
319 picks · 613 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
318 picks · 801 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% 4Pirates
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total82% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:31
4Pirates 72%Level UP 28%
The model gave 72% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzOtaker
51% · 50 games54% · 119 games
Abaddonrubikon155
Abaddon
Monkey King
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
58% · 304 games52% · 254 games
BeastmasterPalantimos
Beastmaster
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
41% · 73 games54% · 192 games
Dragon KnightMaTson
Dragon Knight
Batrider
Batriderariel
50% · 438 games49% · 121 game
PugnaPonlo
Pugna
Axe
AxePERDAN4IK
48% · 96 games40% · 275 games
TuskAtoufix
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct28:9
4Pirates 71%Level UP 29%
The model gave 71% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 21:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
50% · 117 games48% · 138 games
Abaddonrubikon155
Abaddon
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOtaker
53% · 331 game47% · 98 games
UndyingPalantimos
Undying
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
50% · 75 games51% · 356 games
TinyMaTson
Tiny
Dazzle
DazzlePERDAN4IK
55% · 50 games47% · 175 games
WindrangerAtoufix
Windranger
Tusk
Tuskariel
48% · 366 games52% · 172 games
EnchantressPonlo
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 82%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2