PGL Wallachia Season 6. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MWMostt Wanteddloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
Batridersignature
ariel · 26 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
Mostt Wantedd
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
394 picks · 357 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
Puck
343 picks · 866 bans
Pugna
300 picks · 346 bans
Tusk
282 picks · 247 bans
Warlock
281 picks · 129 bans
Dawnbreaker
279 picks · 798 bans
Batrider
275 picks · 683 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
4Pirates 76%Mostt Wantedd 24%
The model gave 76% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Game 2prediction correct
4Pirates 76%Mostt Wantedd 24%
The model gave 76% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 76%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2