CCT Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Muerta
ariel · 13 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 7 games
Nemiga Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
Snapfire
Shishak · 11 games
Hoodwink
Shishak · 9 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
ряф^^ · 6 games
Lion
Shishak · 6 games
Puckoften banned
ряф^^ · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
479 picks · 416 bans
Clockwerk
434 picks · 571 bans
Lion
434 picks · 229 bans
Batrider
431 picks · 533 bans
Phoenix
424 picks · 501 bans
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 747 bans
Pangolier
369 picks · 589 bans
Tiny
361 picks · 417 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
4Pirates 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerOtaker
Earth Spiritспортик
TinyNattyNarwhal
Lifestealerbashka
Enigmaмистер мораль
Night StalkerCovisnine
Phoenixariel
MuertaShishak
ClockwerkPERDAN4IK
Zeusmonodrama
Game 2prediction correct29:29
4Pirates 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenNattyNarwhal
Gyrocopterbashka
Night StalkerOtaker
Tinyспортик
Beastmasterмистер мораль
Dragon KnightCovisnine
Batriderariel
TechiesShishak
LichPERDAN4IK
Abaddonmonodrama
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 51%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2