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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 26 games
65%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
35%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
44%

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 32 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 29 games
59%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 23 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 23 games
39%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 22 games
36%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 21 game
62%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 21 game
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
560 picks · 633 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
483 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
457 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
398 picks · 842 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
375 picks · 557 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
370 picks · 430 bans
58%
Tusk
Tusk
370 picks · 324 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
355 picks · 830 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 47%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:21
4Pirates 36%Nigma Galaxy 64%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
45% · 139 games49% · 205 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Weaver
WeaverOtaker
45% · 137 games58% · 207 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
47% · 177 games52% · 40 games
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
Keeper of the Light
Undying
UndyingPERDAN4IK
50% · 46 games59% · 73 games
Naga SirenGH
Naga Siren
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
46% · 177 games51% · 151 game
JakiroOmaR
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct28:35
4Pirates 38%Nigma Galaxy 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaOtaker
50% · 201 game49% · 185 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
52% · 96 games55% · 246 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddonмистер мораль
52% · 124 games52% · 197 games
DoomNo!ob
Doom
Jakiro
Jakiroariel
45% · 353 games47% · 198 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
46% · 207 games54% · 155 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 74%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2