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CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UAwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 27 games
48%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
56%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
ariel · 20 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
PERDAN4IK · 18 games
61%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
53%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 19 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
506 picks · 543 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 370 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 509 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 702 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 555 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
304 picks · 195 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 434 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% 4Pirates
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total74% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:48
4Pirates 67%Passion UA 33%
The model gave 67% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Passion UA in 51:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonOtaker
41% · 122 games45% · 306 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackNattyNarwhal
57% · 312 games44% · 190 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Enigma
Enigmaмистер мораль
60% · 121 game43% · 89 games
LeshracMoonlight
Leshrac
Batrider
Batriderariel
54% · 308 games66% · 37 games
Dazzlekreker
Dazzle
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
52% · 239 games46% · 480 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct50:43
4Pirates 66%Passion UA 34%
The model gave 66% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 57:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracOtaker
45% · 83 games47% · 102 games
WeaverCrystallize
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
56% · 206 games47% · 213 games
Ember SpiritMoonlight
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal Beastмистер мораль
53% · 137 games35% · 60 games
AxeBatyuk
Axe
Batrider
Batriderariel
55% · 276 games53% · 183 games
Nature's Prophetkreker
Nature's Prophet
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
61% · 118 games45% · 262 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed40:57
4Pirates 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Passion UA in 52:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaOtaker
45% · 258 games58% · 414 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Leshrac
LeshracNattyNarwhal
40% · 81 game49% · 379 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
47% · 575 games56% · 229 games
Nature's Prophetkreker
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
Batriderariel
56% · 421 game48% · 255 games
Primal BeastMoonlight
Primal Beast
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
49% · 461 game51% · 519 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 74%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3