DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Power Rangerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 33 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 29 games
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 28 games
Disruptor
PERDAN4IK · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Marcioften banned
Otaker · 23 games
Slardaroften banned
мистер мораль · 23 games
Power Rangers
Jakirooften banned
Hduo · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
nesfeer · 1 game
Clockwerk
not me · 1 game
Dark Willow
not me · 1 game
Puckoften banned
nicky`cool · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
nesfeer · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
564 picks · 706 bans
Tusk
510 picks · 350 bans
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 659 bans
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 546 bans
Snapfire
412 picks · 138 bans
Hoodwink
397 picks · 186 bans
Mars
376 picks · 519 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
4Pirates 44%Power Rangers 56%
The model gave 56% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladezvёzd
Shadow Fiendnesfeer
Ember Spiritcoldofff
UnderlordAlberkaaa
Pudgeariel
Vipernicky`cool
BanePERDAN4IK
Ogre MagiHduo
55% · 96 games
Lionqueezy
Game 2prediction correct6:27
4Pirates 43%Power Rangers 57%
The model gave 57% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 21:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterzvёzd
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Void Spiritcoldofff
TidehunterAlberkaaa
Keeper of the Lightariel
Slardarnicky`cool
TuskPERDAN4IK
ChenHduo
49% · 199 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 60%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2