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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
47%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
46%

Quantum Team

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batrider
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
13%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Leshrac
Leshrac
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
43%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
takizawa · 7 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fezor · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 668 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
412 picks · 407 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
352 picks · 722 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
325 picks · 616 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 525 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
312 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
300 picks · 585 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
297 picks · 272 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 28%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total81% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:6
4Pirates 67%Quantum Team 33%
The model gave 67% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
50% · 346 games53% · 65 games
Naga SirenLukas
Naga Siren
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOtaker
48% · 147 games52% · 103 games
Brewmasterkolya_kaBAN68
Brewmaster
Venomancer
Venomancerariel
53% · 53 games49% · 355 games
TinyRvze
Tiny
Bane
BanePERDAN4IK
52% · 38 games51% · 165 games
Muertalupsione
Muerta
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
45% · 104 games
Game 2prediction correct24:12
4Pirates 71%Quantum Team 29%
The model gave 71% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 28:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOtaker
49% · 338 games54% · 112 games
Nature's ProphetLukas
Nature's Prophet
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
55% · 353 games42% · 371 game
Pangolierkolya_kaBAN68
Pangolier
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
47% · 187 games49% · 269 games
Ember SpiritRvze
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightariel
55% · 101 game45% · 309 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
56% · 82 games
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 81%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2