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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Quantum Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
38%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
70%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 14 games
71%

Quantum Team

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 17 games
41%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
emptiness · 13 games
23%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 12 games
33%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 11 games
55%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 10 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
547 picks · 608 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 247 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
434 picks · 388 bans
46%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
431 picks · 471 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
409 picks · 848 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
388 picks · 362 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 558 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
366 picks · 536 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 40%
Hero pool strength60% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total84% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
4Pirates 71%Quantum Team 29%
The model gave 71% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
53% · 72 games51% · 177 games
SvenLukas
Sven
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOtaker
50% · 56 games47% · 255 games
Batriderani-san
Batrider
Pangolier
Pangolierмистер мораль
50% · 246 games49% · 128 games
WarlockKrinzhik
Warlock
Windranger
Windrangerariel
42% · 107 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
60% · 79 games
Game 2prediction correct31:30
4Pirates 73%Quantum Team 27%
The model gave 73% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 51:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerOtaker
57% · 35 games44% · 104 games
MedusaLukas
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
59% · 54 games49% · 184 games
BatriderKrinzhik
Batrider
Abaddon
Abaddonмистер мораль
51% · 82 games49% · 165 games
Rubickani-san
Rubick
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPERDAN4IK
54% · 99 games
Jakiro
Jakiroariel
42% · 183 games
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 84%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2