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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 28 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
42%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 21 game
67%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
CatYou · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 7 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
ButterflyEffect · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
586 picks · 292 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
514 picks · 520 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 1064 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
345 picks · 179 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
343 picks · 389 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
342 picks · 156 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 582 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 246 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Roar Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Roar Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:17
4Pirates 45%Roar Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 50:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerzvёzd
60% · 12 games52% · 372 games
PuckButterflyEffect
Puck
Beastmaster
Beastmasterмистер мораль
53% · 382 games46% · 372 games
TerrorbladeUlu
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
47% · 353 games53% · 197 games
Centaur Warrunner生死
Centaur Warrunner
Muerta
Muertaariel
47% · 292 games50% · 216 games
SnapfireCatYou
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPERDAN4IK
54% · 235 games47% · 117 games
UndyingRedPanda
Undying
Game 2prediction missed46:27
4Pirates 43%Roar Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcizvёzd
48% · 246 games50% · 265 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
56% · 227 games47% · 181 game
AbaddonUlu
Abaddon
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNattyNarwhal
44% · 330 games48% · 271 game
Pangolier生死
Pangolier
Snapfire
Snapfireariel
51% · 267 games53% · 235 games
JakiroRedPanda
Jakiro
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
54% · 229 games48% · 347 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRoar Gaming · 60%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2