European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 12 games
Windrangersignature
queezy · 12 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Hduo · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
Slarksignature
Shigetsu · 6 games
Silencer
Hduo · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
483 picks · 474 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 558 bans
Ringmaster
341 picks · 159 bans
Terrorblade
286 picks · 535 bans
Beastmaster
269 picks · 576 bans
Phantom Assassin
267 picks · 567 bans
Bristleback
264 picks · 501 bans
Muerta
263 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:24
4Pirates 57%Runa Team 43%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingOtaker
MorphlingShigetsu
Monkey KingNattyNarwhal
KunkkaAlberkaaa
Sand Kingмистер мораль
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Windrangerariel
Ancient Apparitionqueezy
JakiroPERDAN4IK
RingmasterHduo
Game 2prediction missed22:40
4Pirates 60%Runa Team 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinOtaker
TerrorbladeShigetsu
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Slardarмистер мораль
MagnusAlberkaaa
Ringmasterariel
Batriderqueezy
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
SilencerHduo
Game 3prediction correct47:28
4Pirates 56%Runa Team 44%
The model gave 56% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 1:04:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordOtaker
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
Sand Kingмистер мораль
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
SilencerPERDAN4IK
Windrangerqueezy
Ringmasterariel
Ancient ApparitionHduo
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 65%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3