European Pro League Season 26 · BO5
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 3:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Runa Teamloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 15 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 17 games
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 13 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 12 games
Ringmastersignature
Hduo · 12 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
queezy · 7 games
Silencer
Hduo · 7 games
Slarksignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
489 picks · 482 bans
Tiny
401 picks · 549 bans
Ringmaster
355 picks · 164 bans
Terrorblade
277 picks · 532 bans
Phantom Assassin
262 picks · 525 bans
Storm Spirit
262 picks · 369 bans
Muerta
260 picks · 147 bans
Beastmaster
257 picks · 578 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total68% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:10
4Pirates 58%Runa Team 42%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetOtaker
SlarkShigetsu
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
MedusaAlberkaaa
Venomancerariel
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Windrangerqueezy
Abaddonмистер мораль
JakiroHduo
Game 2prediction missed25:32
4Pirates 61%Runa Team 39%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team in 38:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Wraith KingOtaker
Pucknicky`cool
Kunkkaмистер мораль
TidehunterAlberkaaa
JakiroPERDAN4IK
SilencerHduo
Ringmasterariel
Tuskqueezy
Game 3prediction correct38:10
4Pirates 60%Runa Team 40%
The model gave 60% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 22:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordOtaker
Templar AssassinShigetsu
SniperNattyNarwhal
Nature's ProphetAlberkaaa
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Pangoliernicky`cool
Windrangerariel
Tuskqueezy
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
SilencerHduo
Game 4prediction correct
4Pirates 68%Runa Team 32%
The model gave 68% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 68%
Series result4Pirates 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4