European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 29 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 27 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 20 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Tusksignature
PERDAN4IK · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 17 games
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 29 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 16 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 15 games
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
500 picks · 536 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 434 bans
Tusk
355 picks · 358 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
326 picks · 709 bans
Ringmaster
316 picks · 180 bans
Nature's Prophet
299 picks · 556 bans
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total55% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
4Pirates 55%Runa Team 45%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Game 2prediction missed
4Pirates 55%Runa Team 45%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Runa Team.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 55%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2