CCT Season 2 Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TNL DOTAloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 27 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 21 game
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 19 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 15 games
Tinysignature
Otaker · 15 games
TNL DOTA
Dark Willow
Fernans · 16 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 15 games
Tuskoften banned
Fernans · 15 games
Marcisignature
Fernans · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
dualrazee · 11 games
Batridersignature
Fernans · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
543 picks · 562 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 419 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 391 bans
Pangolier
346 picks · 516 bans
Terrorblade
325 picks · 719 bans
Dark Willow
324 picks · 197 bans
Nature's Prophet
316 picks · 598 bans
Storm Spirit
302 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:26
4Pirates 54%TNL DOTA 46%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordOtaker
Templar Assassinyowaai
BeastmasterNattyNarwhal
Storm Spiritdualrazee
Axeмистер мораль
MagnusNorma
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Nature's ProphetFernans
Shadow Shamanariel
Tuskflacko
Game 2prediction correct36:21
4Pirates 54%TNL DOTA 46%
The model gave 54% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterOtaker
Puckdualrazee
SniperNattyNarwhal
Ursayowaai
Pangolierмистер мораль
UndyingNorma
Batriderariel
Dark WillowFernans
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
Baneflacko
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 54%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2