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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 1:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Winter Bearwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 26 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
73%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 21 game
67%

Winter Bear

Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Panda · 3 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Panda · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Jeezy · 2 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
472 picks · 242 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
463 picks · 448 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 952 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
322 picks · 369 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
289 picks · 469 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 221 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
287 picks · 667 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:31
4Pirates 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 28:42.
Game 2prediction missed19:30
4Pirates 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 30:31.
Game 3prediction missed39:21
4Pirates 80%Winter Bear 20%
The model gave 80% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 38:54.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 80%
Series resultWinter Bear 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3