FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 1:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Y5 Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 14 games
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 11 games
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
Ogre Magi
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 10 games
Y5 Esports
Beastmasteroften banned
Dominic · 3 games
Timbersawoften banned
Dominic · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
470 picks · 589 bans
Muerta
465 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 562 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 776 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 472 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 880 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:17
4Pirates 67%Y5 Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 31:50.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 67%
Series result4Pirates 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1