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CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 13 games
54%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 11 games
45%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 31 game
42%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 30 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 26 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
39%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 21 game
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 679 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
495 picks · 798 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
475 picks · 478 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 547 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
429 picks · 366 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
421 picks · 1005 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
395 picks · 913 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
393 picks · 762 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:2
4Pirates 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 22:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinOtaker
40% · 139 games54% · 291 game
MorphlingRetsu
Morphling
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
47% · 165 games53% · 269 games
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
53% · 303 games51% · 191 game
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
54% · 416 games49% · 229 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Tusk
Tuskariel
48% · 356 games50% · 399 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed47:15
4Pirates 40%Zero Tenacity 60%
The model gave 60% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 27:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherOtaker
53% · 59 games49% · 56 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Puck
PuckNattyNarwhal
48% · 183 games48% · 131 game
LeshracStojkov
Leshrac
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
62% · 180 games48% · 172 games
TerrorbladeRetsu
Terrorblade
Tusk
Tuskariel
53% · 211 games45% · 409 games
ClockwerkPablo
Clockwerk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPERDAN4IK
50% · 203 games45% · 68 games
WarlockLeBronDota
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 71%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2