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European Pro League Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
57%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
46%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 35 games
51%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 27 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
573 picks · 799 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
438 picks · 285 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
433 picks · 827 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
409 picks · 632 bans
51%
Bristleback
Bristleback
400 picks · 858 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
378 picks · 319 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
376 picks · 985 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 502 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total63% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:15
4Pirates 41%Zero Tenacity 59%
The model gave 59% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaOtaker
51% · 119 games48% · 216 games
SvenRetsu
Sven
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
53% · 180 games48% · 267 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
43% · 335 games48% · 341 game
PhoenixNefrit
Phoenix
Windranger
Windrangerariel
48% · 144 games53% · 124 games
EarthshakerPablo
Earthshaker
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
52% · 265 games57% · 95 games
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed24:28
4Pirates 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 47:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOtaker
55% · 121 game51% · 235 games
TinyRetsu
Tiny
Kunkka
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
53% · 112 games44% · 203 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
51% · 138 games51% · 269 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
49% · 324 games48% · 135 games
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Crystal Maiden
Windranger
Windrangerariel
49% · 222 games47% · 75 games
RingmasterPablo
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 63%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2