European Pro League Season 25 · BO5
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 3:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Clockwerk
ariel · 17 games
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 14 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 36 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 35 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 27 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
560 picks · 785 bans
Phantom Assassin
428 picks · 818 bans
Muerta
417 picks · 274 bans
Bristleback
394 picks · 826 bans
Phoenix
394 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
367 picks · 858 bans
Clockwerk
364 picks · 301 bans
Pangolier
364 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% 4Pirates
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total58% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:25
4Pirates 48%Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 30:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetOtaker
Phantom AssassinRetsu
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
BristlebackNefrit
Tidehunterмистер мораль
SlardarStojkov
SilencerPERDAN4IK
WindrangerPablo
Jakiroariel
WarlockLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed30:22
4Pirates 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 33:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterOtaker
GyrocopterRetsu
TinyNattyNarwhal
KunkkaStojkov
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
SlardarNefrit
Ringmasterariel
WindrangerPablo
JakiroPERDAN4IK
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Game 3prediction missed28:17
4Pirates 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterOtaker
GyrocopterRetsu
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Kunkkaмистер мораль
LinaStojkov
JakiroPERDAN4IK
Crystal MaidenLeBronDota
Windrangerariel
RingmasterPablo
Game 4prediction missed36:27
4Pirates 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingOtaker
Phantom AssassinRetsu
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
PuckStojkov
Slardarмистер мораль
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Keeper of the Lightariel
RingmasterPablo
JakiroPERDAN4IK
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 58%
Series result4Pirates 3:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4