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The International 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 24 games
54%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 18 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 14 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 14 games
43%

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 31 game
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 29 games
31%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 27 games
48%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 25 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 23 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 457 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 537 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
433 picks · 213 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
336 picks · 608 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 422 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
290 picks · 627 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
285 picks · 200 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
271 picks · 78 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total60% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:27
4Pirates 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 46:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordOtaker
40% · 113 games45% · 106 games
SvenNande
Sven
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
48% · 360 games50% · 177 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
59% · 107 games50% · 203 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Omniknight
Omniknightмистер мораль
51% · 45 games57% · 105 games
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
Nature's Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
44% · 188 games56% · 222 games
Shadow DemonPablo
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct30:23
4Pirates 55%Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonOtaker
48% · 63 games49% · 58 games
SvenNande
Sven
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
51% · 159 games49% · 249 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
50% · 112 games39% · 87 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
57% · 99 games50% · 105 games
Nature's ProphetLeBronDota
Nature's Prophet
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
52% · 201 game51% · 135 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Game 3prediction correct33:4
4Pirates 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 23:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerOtaker
36% · 32 games49% · 62 games
SlarkNande
Slark
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
47% · 383 games54% · 329 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
49% · 188 games51% · 244 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
Abaddonмистер мораль
48% · 102 games51% · 109 games
Shadow ShamanPablo
Shadow Shaman
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
56% · 71 game54% · 32 games
OracleLeBronDota
Oracle
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 60%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3