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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
41%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PERDAN4IK · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
ariel · 15 games
73%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 14 games
71%

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
38%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 24 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 23 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 541 bans
49%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
441 picks · 231 bans
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
441 picks · 493 bans
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
394 picks · 296 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 355 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 810 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
357 picks · 518 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 528 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% 4Pirates
Head-to-head6 – 2
Model total63% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:28
4Pirates 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOtaker
47% · 185 games49% · 180 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
51% · 186 games49% · 220 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
49% · 107 games42% · 56 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
Earthshaker
Earthshakerariel
49% · 175 games62% · 85 games
ChenSe
Chen
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
52% · 223 games49% · 335 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct35:34
4Pirates 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNattyNarwhal
39% · 435 games48% · 102 games
LifestealerNande
Lifestealer
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
49% · 252 games48% · 414 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOtaker
44% · 307 games51% · 90 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetariel
50% · 167 games50% · 671 game
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPERDAN4IK
57% · 206 games67% · 90 games
BaneSe
Bane
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 63%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2