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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 35 games
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 33 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 27 games
63%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
74%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 23 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
79%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 18 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
53%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
46%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 24 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 20 games
65%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Pablo · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
558 picks · 583 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
380 picks · 222 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 425 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
343 picks · 335 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
335 picks · 497 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
326 picks · 858 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
323 picks · 684 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
304 picks · 857 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% 4Pirates
Head-to-head7 – 4
Model total52% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:7
4Pirates 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 33:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerмистер мораль
46% · 194 games52% · 214 games
DoomNande
Doom
Underlord
UnderlordOtaker
51% · 67 games45% · 245 games
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyPERDAN4IK
51% · 391 game46% · 123 games
AbaddonNefrit
Abaddon
Pugna
Pugnaariel
51% · 121 game48% · 28 games
Grimstrokeyamich
Grimstroke
58% · 163 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct11:34
4Pirates 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 29:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetOtaker
57% · 239 games51% · 212 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Axe
Axeмистер мораль
45% · 127 games53% · 222 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Tusk
TuskPERDAN4IK
47% · 511 games50% · 132 games
UndyingNefrit
Undying
Disruptor
Disruptorariel
44% · 81 game54% · 119 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
49% · 273 games
Dark Willowyamich
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed23:21
4Pirates 50%Zero Tenacity 50%
The model gave 50% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 40:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzOtaker
56% · 22 games61% · 57 games
Shadow FiendMirage
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
51% · 70 games58% · 109 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
45% · 330 games49% · 63 games
EnigmaNefrit
Enigma
Undying
UndyingPERDAN4IK
47% · 129 games49% · 82 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
45% · 240 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 52%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3