Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction44u4uwaraloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
kefteme.mp3win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4u4uwara
No games played over 6 months.
kefteme.mp3
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
747 picks · 606 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 471 bans
Beastmaster
421 picks · 1014 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 376 bans
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 956 bans
Doom
392 picks · 630 bans
Undying
388 picks · 603 bans
Mirana
381 picks · 204 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% 4u4uwara
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% kefteme.mp3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:22
4u4uwara 45%kefteme.mp3 55%
The model gave 55% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3 in 36:56.
Game 2prediction correct21:27
4u4uwara 45%kefteme.mp3 55%
The model gave 55% on kefteme.mp3 — the game was taken by kefteme.mp3 in 45:17.
Model check result
Model favoritekefteme.mp3 · 55%
Series resultkefteme.mp3 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2