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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 17 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ethereal · 14 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
WoE · 13 games
62%

VP.Prodigy

Axe
Axe
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 9 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
raregods · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 612 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
556 picks · 214 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
532 picks · 706 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 322 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
477 picks · 238 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 546 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 579 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
400 picks · 587 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength60% Kalmychata
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total73% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
Kalmychata 73%VP.Prodigy 27%
The model gave 73% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 28:04.
Game 2prediction missed21:38
Kalmychata 73%VP.Prodigy 27%
The model gave 73% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 35:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 73%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2