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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 40 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 29 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 28 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 26 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 25 games
52%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
18%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
25%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 7 games
43%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
619 picks · 606 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
564 picks · 224 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
534 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 319 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 239 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
467 picks · 547 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 590 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
406 picks · 595 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 37%
Hero pool strength58% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total85% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
Pipsqueak+4 72%Team Spirit Academy 28%
The model gave 72% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 1:02:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNande
53% · 81 game44% · 108 games
Weaverrubikon155
Weaver
Viper
ViperCopy
49% · 31 game47% · 7 games
Outworld Destroyer86
Outworld Destroyer
Axe
AxePalantimos
45% · 148 games54% · 196 games
SlardarSunshineRR
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEkki
52% · 147 games56% · 171 game
Chenkyford
Chen
Tusk
Tuskaik
48% · 306 games48% · 231 game
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct31:17
Pipsqueak+4 71%Team Spirit Academy 29%
The model gave 71% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
52% · 399 games48% · 89 games
Huskarrubikon155
Huskar
Sniper
SniperCopy
51% · 69 games54% · 265 games
Nature's Prophet86
Nature's Prophet
Undying
UndyingPalantimos
45% · 179 games47% · 192 games
DawnbreakerSunshineRR
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
Snapfireaik
48% · 316 games59% · 201 game
Chenkyford
Chen
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEkki
50% · 227 games46% · 443 games
TuskAidar
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 85%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2