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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 31 game
68%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 31 game
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 31 game
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 26 games
58%
Tusk
Tusksignature
slimeyao · 25 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 25 games
52%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 40 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 25 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
618 picks · 603 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
565 picks · 227 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
536 picks · 714 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 318 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
481 picks · 239 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 544 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
426 picks · 589 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
406 picks · 595 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:27
HULIGANI 53%Pipsqueak+4 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
52% · 275 games48% · 38 games
SniperCopy
Sniper
Pangolier
PangolierBb3px
52% · 385 games51% · 63 games
PudgeNande
Pudge
Viper
Vipererase
42% · 40 games46% · 208 games
BeastmasterPalantimos
Beastmaster
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
47% · 100 games51% · 249 games
Snapfireaik
Snapfire
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
54% · 57 games51% · 299 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed27:13
HULIGANI 49%Pipsqueak+4 51%
The model gave 51% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
45% · 151 game54% · 311 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
Windrangererase
51% · 192 games54% · 66 games
HuskarNande
Huskar
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
49% · 99 games47% · 348 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
48% · 369 games52% · 283 games
Snapfireaik
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
48% · 470 games53% · 273 games
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct38:33
HULIGANI 52%Pipsqueak+4 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
45% · 113 games42% · 55 games
JuggernautNande
Juggernaut
Omniknight
OmniknightBb3px
50% · 20 games58% · 120 games
DoomPalantimos
Doom
Leshrac
Leshracerase
50% · 206 games51% · 289 games
Dragon KnightCopy
Dragon Knight
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
48% · 112 games54% · 235 games
Snapfireaik
Snapfire
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
48% · 438 games53% · 190 games
DisruptorEkki
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3