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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Most Wantedloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
18%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 6 games
33%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 24 games
71%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 19 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 18 games
78%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 18 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 17 games
76%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
613 picks · 598 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
575 picks · 233 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
538 picks · 712 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
520 picks · 317 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
486 picks · 244 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 543 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 596 bans
49%
Disruptor
Disruptor
414 picks · 399 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 67%
Hero pool strength67% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total86% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:48
Team Spirit Academy 27%Most Wanted 73%
The model gave 73% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 44:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherrubikon155
61% · 43 games44% · 158 games
Ursa423
Ursa
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain86
48% · 296 games54% · 110 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSunshineRR
51% · 157 games43% · 179 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Pugna
Pugnakyford
55% · 242 games53% · 230 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
47% · 45 games46% · 106 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed24:13
Team Spirit Academy 25%Most Wanted 75%
The model gave 75% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 32:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingrubikon155
53% · 250 games37% · 67 games
Queen of Painniche
Queen of Pain
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyer86
48% · 9 games54% · 109 games
Gyrocopter423
Gyrocopter
Tidehunter
TidehunterSunshineRR
48% · 213 games49% · 87 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Techies
TechiesAidar
46% · 23 games57% · 80 games
Shadow DemonPonlo
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorkyford
little data52% · 152 games
TuskUndyne_
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed19:8
Team Spirit Academy 25%Most Wanted 75%
The model gave 75% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 28:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
Batriderrubikon155
53% · 348 games48% · 190 games
Storm Spiritniche
Storm Spirit
Tinker
Tinker86
50% · 120 games61% · 23 games
Drow Ranger423
Drow Ranger
Tidehunter
TidehunterSunshineRR
46% · 278 games55% · 154 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesAidar
47% · 28 games46% · 231 game
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Io
Iokyford
41% · 25 games52% · 201 game
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 86%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3