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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Axe
Axe
takizawa · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Serenada · 8 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
raregods · 7 games
14%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 11 games
18%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 7 games
29%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 598 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
584 picks · 235 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
540 picks · 713 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
522 picks · 318 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 250 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 546 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 599 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
421 picks · 407 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 36%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit Academy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
VP.Prodigy 58%Team Spirit Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Game 2prediction missed
VP.Prodigy 58%Team Spirit Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy.
Game 3prediction correct
VP.Prodigy 58%Team Spirit Academy 42%
The model gave 58% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy.
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 58%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3