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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychataloss 1:2
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%

Team Spirit Academy

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 10 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
kyford · 7 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 7 games
29%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 7 games
29%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
kyford · 6 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
SunshineRR · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 599 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
601 picks · 241 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
546 picks · 717 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 321 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
500 picks · 253 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 553 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 611 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
432 picks · 419 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength63% Kalmychata
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total90% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:33
Kalmychata 90%Team Spirit Academy 10%
The model gave 90% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 43:22.
Game 2prediction missed19:28
Kalmychata 90%Team Spirit Academy 10%
The model gave 90% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 38:29.
Game 3prediction missed24:15
Kalmychata 90%Team Spirit Academy 10%
The model gave 90% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 31:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3