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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 16 games
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%

VP.Prodigy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 9 games
44%
Axe
Axe
takizawa · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Serenada · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 598 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
604 picks · 247 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
548 picks · 719 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
525 picks · 320 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
505 picks · 253 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
478 picks · 552 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
439 picks · 423 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
436 picks · 615 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% AVULUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:15
AVULUS 69%VP.Prodigy 31%
The model gave 69% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 37:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingssnovv1
47% · 191 game56% · 72 games
Juggernautcutie
Juggernaut
Invoker
Invokerdualrazee
49% · 117 games50% · 262 games
BeastmasterSerenada
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterCorrupted
45% · 174 games52% · 280 games
Bristlebacktakizawa
Bristleback
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
57% · 167 games44% · 126 games
Void Spiritraregods
Void Spirit
Batrider
BatriderWein
49% · 292 games51% · 201 game
Shadow DemonJANTER
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct33:12
AVULUS 66%VP.Prodigy 34%
The model gave 66% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterssnovv1
52% · 280 games51% · 299 games
Templar Assassincutie
Templar Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
52% · 314 games55% · 104 games
RubickSerenada
Rubick
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
45% · 100 games48% · 366 games
Marstakizawa
Mars
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
46% · 469 games55% · 449 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskWein
45% · 414 games52% · 359 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 81%
Series resultAVULUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2