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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 23 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 20 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 19 games
74%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 18 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 16 games
81%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
73%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 39 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 27 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 24 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 24 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
613 picks · 598 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
605 picks · 247 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
547 picks · 718 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 320 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
505 picks · 253 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
477 picks · 549 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
439 picks · 423 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 614 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength61% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:31
Most Wanted 46%Pipsqueak+4 54%
The model gave 54% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 41:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetniche
53% · 263 games52% · 81 game
JuggernautNande
Juggernaut
Slark
Slark423
50% · 60 games50% · 163 games
Primal BeastCopy
Primal Beast
Axe
AxefortniteMan
39% · 171 game51% · 115 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPonlo
55% · 210 games53% · 285 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Jakiro
JakiroUndyne_
50% · 345 games49% · 405 games
Warlockaik
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct21:36
Most Wanted 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshrac423
51% · 217 games51% · 412 games
Dragon KnightNande
Dragon Knight
Axe
AxefortniteMan
48% · 212 games50% · 351 game
Ember SpiritCopy
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey Kingniche
58% · 278 games46% · 203 games
TidehunterPalantimos
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroUndyne_
47% · 583 games50% · 349 games
Ringmasteraik
Ringmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorPonlo
46% · 341 game54% · 316 games
BatriderEkki
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 54%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2