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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Peru Rejectsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 39 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 31 game
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 27 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 23 games
52%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
40%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Elmisho · 9 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Matthew · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
620 picks · 255 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
613 picks · 597 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
556 picks · 722 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
532 picks · 324 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
515 picks · 255 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 559 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
454 picks · 432 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
448 picks · 626 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:1
Pipsqueak+4 62%Peru Rejects 38%
The model gave 62% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 13:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
UnderlordPalantimos
45% · 93 games53% · 205 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
51% · 321 game50% · 182 games
Phantom AssassinParker
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNande
50% · 447 games44% · 285 games
MarsSacred
Mars
Batrider
BatriderEkki
48% · 289 games56% · 214 games
Shadow DemonMichael
Shadow Demon
Mirana
Miranaaik
63% · 65 games44% · 329 games
WarlockElmisho
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct29:9
Pipsqueak+4 64%Peru Rejects 36%
The model gave 64% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNande
51% · 102 games51% · 168 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordPalantimos
48% · 71 game55% · 133 games
ChenElmisho
Chen
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
46% · 125 games47% · 195 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonEkki
52% · 183 games47% · 111 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanaik
54% · 200 games47% · 74 games
Skywrath MageMichael
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 71%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2