CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 39 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 30 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 29 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 27 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 23 games
Tusk
Ekki · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 22 games
VP.Prodigy
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 8 games
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
Axe
takizawa · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 7 games
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 6 games
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
632 picks · 262 bans
Jakiro
610 picks · 597 bans
Dragon Knight
559 picks · 721 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 323 bans
Hoodwink
526 picks · 258 bans
Centaur Warrunner
485 picks · 565 bans
Disruptor
465 picks · 435 bans
Mars
456 picks · 637 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 35%
Hero pool strength60% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:60
Pipsqueak+4 75%VP.Prodigy 25%
The model gave 75% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 1:06:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritCopy
Windrangercutie
Dragon KnightNande
Queen of PainSerenada
ViperPalantimos
Marstakizawa
TinyEkki
Batriderraregods
Jakiroaik
Elder TitanJANTER
Game 2prediction missed20:34
Pipsqueak+4 74%VP.Prodigy 26%
The model gave 74% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 35:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterNande
BeastmasterSerenada
UndyingPalantimos
Bristlebacktakizawa
SniperCopy
Abaddoncutie
Tuskaik
Bounty Hunterraregods
JakiroEkki
BaneJANTER
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 88%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2