European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 23 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 19 games
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 16 games
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 16 games
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
636 picks · 265 bans
Jakiro
608 picks · 597 bans
Dragon Knight
559 picks · 721 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 323 bans
Hoodwink
527 picks · 259 bans
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 566 bans
Disruptor
468 picks · 438 bans
Mars
458 picks · 639 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Most Wanted
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:23
Most Wanted 40%Kalmychata 60%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 32:14.
Game 2prediction correct20:24
Most Wanted 40%Kalmychata 60%
The model gave 60% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 41:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 60%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2