?
arrow_backBack to match
CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Peru Rejectsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 35 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 27 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 27 games
74%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 23 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptor
slimeyao · 22 games
50%

Peru Rejects

Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Elmisho · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
44%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Elmisho · 9 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Michael · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Michael · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
696 picks · 297 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 596 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
574 picks · 730 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
565 picks · 277 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
547 picks · 333 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
511 picks · 488 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 594 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
488 picks · 699 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:51
HULIGANI 63%Peru Rejects 37%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 55:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezv1olent-
47% · 57 games57% · 186 games
Monkey KingParker
Monkey King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fienderase
52% · 130 games54% · 338 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeBb3px
45% · 227 games53% · 235 games
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
PugnaRESPECT
47% · 244 games51% · 118 games
Ancient ApparitionMichael
Ancient Apparition
Tiny
Tinyslimeyao
47% · 525 games47% · 306 games
JakiroElmisho
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct38:21
HULIGANI 65%Peru Rejects 35%
The model gave 65% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 35:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
51% · 139 games40% · 52 games
AlchemistParker
Alchemist
Tiny
Tinyerase
53% · 347 games50% · 185 games
Sand KingDarkMago
Sand King
Mars
MarsBb3px
48% · 250 games54% · 160 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
48% · 197 games55% · 248 games
Shadow DemonMichael
Shadow Demon
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
47% · 101 game50% · 389 games
JakiroElmisho
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct41:10
HULIGANI 64%Peru Rejects 36%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
48% · 149 games54% · 320 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Tiny
Tinyerase
51% · 347 games44% · 211 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
44% · 162 games56% · 43 games
ViperSacred
Viper
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
48% · 86 games54% · 92 games
RikiElmisho
Riki
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
52% · 265 games51% · 343 games
TuskMichael
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 73%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3