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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 32 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
mrls · 30 games
37%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 27 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 27 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Infernal · 26 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
702 picks · 299 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 593 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
574 picks · 731 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
566 picks · 277 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 334 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
516 picks · 490 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 594 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
489 picks · 701 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Kalmychata
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total52% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:11
Yellow Submarine 48%Kalmychata 52%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 36:31.
Game 2prediction correct16:26
Yellow Submarine 48%Kalmychata 52%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 37:41.
Game 3prediction correct26:23
Yellow Submarine 48%Kalmychata 52%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 46:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 52%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3