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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 16 games
44%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Xibbe · 14 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Smiling Knight · 14 games
79%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 13 games
54%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 13 games
54%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
708 picks · 300 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 592 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
574 picks · 733 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
569 picks · 278 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 334 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
517 picks · 489 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 597 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
490 picks · 704 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:18
AVULUS 46%Kalmychata 54%
The model gave 54% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 27:46.
Game 2prediction correct7:16
AVULUS 46%Kalmychata 54%
The model gave 54% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 30:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 54%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2