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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Most Wantedwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 10 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 10 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
25%
Axe
Axe
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Ponlo · 16 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
73%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 15 games
80%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
708 picks · 300 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 592 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
574 picks · 733 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
569 picks · 278 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
549 picks · 334 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
517 picks · 489 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 597 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
490 picks · 704 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 70%
Hero pool strength65% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total76% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:41
Team Lynx 34%Most Wanted 66%
The model gave 66% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsVladikTheHtiviy
42% · 216 games50% · 162 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Faceless Void
Faceless Void7jesu
58% · 48 games50% · 258 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Tiny
Tinymellojul
44% · 388 games54% · 171 game
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
59% · 61 game
Keeper of the LightPonlo
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct20:38
Team Lynx 34%Most Wanted 66%
The model gave 66% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 39:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernaut7jesu
48% · 69 games52% · 23 games
Huskarniche
Huskar
Batrider
Batridermellojul
47% · 150 games50% · 10 games
Omniknight423
Omniknight
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
37% · 45 games48% · 140 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
65% · 91 game
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 76%
Series resultMost Wanted 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2