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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Most Wantedloss 1:2
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 1:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 16 games
75%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
73%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
niche · 15 games
80%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
80%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 14 games
86%

VP.Prodigy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 6 games
33%
Axe
Axe
takizawa · 5 games
20%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
720 picks · 303 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
610 picks · 592 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
575 picks · 734 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
575 picks · 284 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
550 picks · 334 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
525 picks · 493 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
505 picks · 597 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
496 picks · 713 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 32%
Hero pool strength71% Most Wanted
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total93% Most Wanted
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:41
Most Wanted 79%VP.Prodigy 21%
The model gave 79% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 53:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slark423
50% · 108 games58% · 166 games
Ursacutie
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightniche
43% · 317 games44% · 117 games
LeshracSerenada
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawfortniteMan
44% · 204 games57% · 181 game
Bristlebacktakizawa
Bristleback
Techies
TechiesPonlo
48% · 34 games53% · 70 games
Void Spiritraregods
Void Spirit
59% · 129 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct34:21
Most Wanted 81%VP.Prodigy 19%
The model gave 81% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 47:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Omniknight
Omniknight423
53% · 34 games48% · 124 games
Abaddoncutie
Abaddon
Huskar
Huskarniche
50% · 64 games54% · 30 games
ViperSerenada
Viper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastfortniteMan
55% · 120 games43% · 84 games
Axetakizawa
Axe
Ringmaster
RingmasterPonlo
52% · 175 games54% · 55 games
Void Spiritraregods
Void Spirit
42% · 100 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed20:37
Most Wanted 81%VP.Prodigy 19%
The model gave 81% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 33:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerniche
46% · 137 games44% · 133 games
Abaddoncutie
Abaddon
Broodmother
Broodmother423
62% · 40 games52% · 105 games
Queen of PainSerenada
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastfortniteMan
50% · 128 games45% · 93 games
Axetakizawa
Axe
Ringmaster
RingmasterPonlo
49% · 231 game52% · 65 games
Bounty Hunterraregods
Bounty Hunter
55% · 140 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteMost Wanted · 93%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3