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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 35 games
54%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 28 games
61%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 27 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 26 games
73%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 24 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 23 games
61%
Disruptor
Disruptor
slimeyao · 22 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
738 picks · 314 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
608 picks · 591 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
590 picks · 293 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
579 picks · 742 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 336 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
539 picks · 509 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
514 picks · 604 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
501 picks · 738 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 28%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total79% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:14
HULIGANI 66%Nemiga Gaming 34%
The model gave 66% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 34:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
57% · 123 games43% · 327 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Tiny
Tinyerase
53% · 340 games52% · 294 games
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
51% · 210 games42% · 79 games
Weaverchempik
Weaver
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
51% · 169 games49% · 481 game
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
54% · 339 games
Game 2prediction correct28:8
HULIGANI 67%Nemiga Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 30:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
59% · 217 games46% · 86 games
Juggernautchempik
Juggernaut
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBb3px
53% · 94 games51% · 129 games
Invokeryoung G
Invoker
Tiny
Tinyerase
50% · 238 games40% · 176 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
48% · 168 games50% · 403 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
58% · 77 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 79%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2