CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Kalmychatawin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Kalmychata
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
Dazzlesignature
raregods · 14 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 39 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 27 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 21 game
Tusk
Ekki · 21 game
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
743 picks · 322 bans
Jakiro
606 picks · 589 bans
Hoodwink
595 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
582 picks · 742 bans
Tusk
554 picks · 336 bans
Disruptor
540 picks · 518 bans
Centaur Warrunner
515 picks · 604 bans
Mars
506 picks · 746 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 51%
Hero pool strength55% Kalmychata
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:21
Kalmychata 36%Pipsqueak+4 64%
The model gave 64% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 33:01.
Game 2prediction correct19:34
Kalmychata 36%Pipsqueak+4 64%
The model gave 64% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 26:21.
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 64%
Series resultKalmychata 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2