?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 34 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 26 games
58%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 26 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 23 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
68%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 13 games
69%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
27%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 9 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
25%
Axe
Axe
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
746 picks · 327 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 587 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
598 picks · 302 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
588 picks · 743 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
554 picks · 338 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 523 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
516 picks · 608 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
504 picks · 758 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
HULIGANI 68%Team Lynx 32%
The model gave 68% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
55% · 41 game52% · 43 games
Drow Ranger7jesu
Drow Ranger
Rubick
Rubickerase
57% · 17 games58% · 40 games
Vipermellojul
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
38% · 61 game45% · 184 games
MarsVladikTheHtiviy
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
51% · 76 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonslimeyao
53% · 72 games
Game 3prediction missed20:28
HULIGANI 66%Team Lynx 34%
The model gave 66% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracv1olent-
54% · 94 games50% · 97 games
Juggernaut7jesu
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painerase
46% · 133 games56% · 172 games
Timbersawmellojul
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
42% · 77 games54% · 256 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
42% · 149 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
48% · 72 games
Game 4prediction missed14:28
HULIGANI 70%Team Lynx 30%
The model gave 70% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
47% · 137 games54% · 297 games
Gyrocopter7jesu
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
Timbersawerase
53% · 178 games52% · 316 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Mars
MarsBb3px
45% · 156 games51% · 140 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Windranger
Windrangerslimeyao
47% · 128 games
Disruptor
DisruptorRESPECT
48% · 154 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 83%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3