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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Most Wantedwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 33 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 26 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 25 games
76%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 23 games
61%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
68%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 23 games
70%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Ponlo · 17 games
82%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
73%
Marci
Marcisignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
80%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
fortniteMan · 15 games
80%
Chen
Chensignature
Rein · 14 games
86%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Rein · 14 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
fortniteMan · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
746 picks · 332 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
603 picks · 582 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
600 picks · 304 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
589 picks · 744 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
552 picks · 338 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 525 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
514 picks · 609 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
504 picks · 757 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 70%
Hero pool strength59% Most Wanted
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:12
HULIGANI 48%Most Wanted 52%
The model gave 52% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 18:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
52% · 72 games48% · 8 games
Broodmother423
Broodmother
Viper
Vipererase
45% · 33 games44% · 92 games
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastBb3px
60% · 103 games51% · 99 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Venomancer
VenomancerRESPECT
51% · 33 games54% · 82 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
40% · 40 games
Game 2prediction missed41:25
HULIGANI 49%Most Wanted 51%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursav1olent-
51% · 172 games50% · 116 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Viper
Vipererase
52% · 37 games45% · 91 game
Leshrac423
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaBb3px
49% · 91 game46% · 163 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
46% · 50 games58% · 231 game
Shadow ShamanPonlo
Shadow Shaman
Tiny
Tinyslimeyao
52% · 251 game
Game 3prediction correct44:35
HULIGANI 50%Most Wanted 50%
The model gave 50% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 43:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
50% · 92 games58% · 24 games
Bloodseeker423
Bloodseeker
Huskar
Huskarerase
50% · 49 games56% · 239 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Mars
MarsBb3px
45% · 165 games51% · 234 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
41% · 119 games47% · 117 games
WindrangerPonlo
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanRESPECT
53% · 189 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultMost Wanted 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3