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CIS Battle 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 33 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 25 games
64%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 25 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 24 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 23 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 22 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 22 games
77%

VP.Prodigy

Snapfire
Snapfire
armageddon · 8 games
13%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
armageddon · 7 games
14%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 6 games
33%
Axe
Axe
takizawa · 5 games
20%
Mars
Marsoften banned
takizawa · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
cutie · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
747 picks · 335 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
602 picks · 581 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
600 picks · 304 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
589 picks · 744 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
552 picks · 339 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 528 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
515 picks · 608 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
503 picks · 761 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength63% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total90% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:25
HULIGANI 77%VP.Prodigy 23%
The model gave 77% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 55:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
49% · 55 games57% · 29 games
Kezcutie
Kez
Rubick
Rubickerase
46% · 34 games48% · 153 games
Tidehuntertakizawa
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenRESPECT
57% · 118 games62% · 23 games
ViperSerenada
Viper
Slardar
SlardarBb3px
52% · 141 game44% · 114 games
Void Spiritraregods
Void Spirit
Tiny
Tinyslimeyao
50% · 175 games46% · 204 games
DisruptorJANTER
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct42:18
HULIGANI 76%VP.Prodigy 24%
The model gave 76% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezv1olent-
55% · 53 games49% · 368 games
Terrorbladecutie
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarBb3px
52% · 269 games46% · 370 games
BeastmasterSerenada
Beastmaster
Tiny
Tinyerase
53% · 472 games45% · 273 games
Marstakizawa
Mars
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
55% · 225 games36% · 27 games
Techiesraregods
Techies
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
54% · 462 games48% · 443 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 90%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2