The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 25 games
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 21 game
Venomancer
Rein · 21 game
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 19 games
Tusk
swedenstrong · 15 games
Largosignature
33 · 13 games
Underlordoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 36 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 28 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 18 games
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 17 games
Muertasignature
rincyq · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
503 picks · 348 bans
Clockwerk
353 picks · 634 bans
Bane
350 picks · 401 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 456 bans
Rubick
324 picks · 176 bans
Tiny
311 picks · 341 bans
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 576 bans
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 329 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total62% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:5
1w Team 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingPure~
LifestealerSumaiL
Centaur Warrunner33
HuskarLorenof
Earthshakerbzm
SlardarDavai
UndyingWhitemon
ClockwerkOmaR
HoodwinkAri
MiranaGH
Game 2prediction correct56:20
1w Team 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezPure~
NecrophosSumaiL
Lycan33
Storm SpiritLorenof
Earth Spiritbzm
LargoDavai
HoodwinkAri
Shadow ShamanOmaR
RingmasterWhitemon
BaneGH
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 62%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2