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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Resiliencewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

No games played over 6 months.

Team Resilience

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Echo · 19 games
68%
Kez
Kezsignature
poyoyo · 16 games
69%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
zzq · 16 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Echo · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
pLAnet · 11 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Echo · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
pLAnet · 9 games
67%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
pLAnet · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
582 picks · 377 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
513 picks · 317 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
438 picks · 190 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
413 picks · 361 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 559 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
366 picks · 180 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
314 picks · 584 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
309 picks · 304 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 63%
Hero pool strength58% Team Resilience
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Tidebound
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:14
Team Tidebound 58%Team Resilience 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Tidebound in 34:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezshiro
52% · 267 games53% · 164 games
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
Nature's Prophet
Brewmaster
BrewmasterYang
51% · 133 games47% · 181 game
Dragon KnightEcho
Dragon Knight
Slark
SlarkNothingToSay
53% · 73 games51% · 146 games
Marsniu
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
45% · 316 games52% · 357 games
WindrangerTK
Windranger
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
51% · 196 games47% · 137 games
Dazzlezzq
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed13:41
Team Tidebound 57%Team Resilience 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageshiro
62% · 29 games44% · 124 games
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
Nature's Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerYang
56% · 164 games46% · 102 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNothingToSay
54% · 133 games43% · 40 games
EarthshakerEcho
Earthshaker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
48% · 396 games53% · 428 games
HoodwinkTK
Hoodwink
Lich
Lichy`
45% · 117 games50% · 145 games
Banezzq
Bane
Game 3prediction missed29:46
Team Tidebound 56%Team Resilience 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Tidebound — the game was taken by Team Resilience in 1:00:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyshiro
49% · 544 games52% · 183 games
Muertapoyoyo
Muerta
Io
IoNothingToSay
55% · 91 game45% · 184 games
Void SpiritEcho
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarYang
51% · 395 games55% · 248 games
Largoniu
Largo
Techies
TechiespLAnet
46% · 313 games49% · 260 games
Dark WillowTK
Dark Willow
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctory`
50% · 139 games49% · 607 games
Hoodwinkzzq
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tidebound · 65%
Series resultTeam Resilience 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3